Thoughts from Week 5:

It was a fun week of watching football, but I think the first quarter of the season has shown us something across all NFL teams – the use of the TE position is down.  Before writing this, I thought Bowers would probably be my favorite TE this week simply because he’s the one who is featured in the game plan every week.  Interestingly if we look at per game average, the top 5 TEs this season are (according to ESPN): 1. Kittle, 2. Goedert, 3. Bowers, 4. Ferguson, 5. Tucker Kraft. 

I expect Kelce’s numbers to catch a boost with Rashee Rice out of the lineup and that speaks to my theory.  Teams are moving their top receivers around more than ever before in the hopes of matching them up against inferior corners, linebackers and safeties.  Will this trend continue?  I think it will, which means we have to be focusing more on personnel availability and red zone target share than we have.  This feels more like early 2000s football to me, but it’s nothing we haven’t seen before.  My TE waiver pickups are going to focus more on target totals at that position than anything else.

As for the other positions, there’s a lot of quality widely available this week at QB, RB and WR.  Everyone is hurting at TE, so I would suggest bolstering these other positions rather than chase the TE position.  I think we’re in for a lot of week-to-week volatility at the position.  And for what it’s worth, be patient with the pre-season top guys.  Kelce, LaPorta and McBride should assert themselves when the weather gets colder (including Laporta/McBride who play in domes at home).

Onto the Waivers…

Quarterback:  

1. Sam Darnold (45% available) – Darnold took a bit of a step back last week, but I still have him #1 among QBs thanks to the combination of his coaching, his weapons and his ability to use his legs when needed    
2. Kirk Cousins (55%) – When someone throws for 500 yards in a game, you need to take notice.  Cousins and the Falcons passing attack had been showing signs of life, but we saw an explosion last Monday that vaults Cousins to the top of my QB list.
3. Tua Tagovailoa (71%) – you can still stash him on your IR.  He will get the Dolphins offense moving again as soon as he’s available.  Let’s just hope, for his sake, he can avoid big hits.
4. Caleb Williams (56%) – While all the attention remains on Jayden Daniels, Caleb has improved weekly.  He looks like he’s figuring it out.
5. Geno Smith (50%) – When I dug into the analytics prior to the games, I thought the Giants were going to make this a tougher matchup on Smith than advertised.  It was a bit of a trap game for the Seahawks, but I think they and Smith will bounce back.

Running Back:

1. Bucky Irving (43% available) – I’m surprised he’s still this widely available.  He has a defined role with the Bucs and will be at least splitting time (if not winning more carries) the rest of the season.  He’s the #1 back for sure.
2. Tank Bigsby (91%) – I said last week and I’ll say it again, he is playing better than Travis Etienne.  Believe your eyes and grab Bigsby ASAP.
3. Chase Brown (35%) – I forgot him in the first draft, but I think Brown has clearly taken over the Bengals backfield.
4. Braelon Allen (58%) – Snap him up!
5. Jaylen Wright (92%) – I drafted Wright in my dynasty formats and am not the least bit surprised by what I saw yesterday.  I think Wright and Achane will be the new duo for Miami next season but if Achane or Mostert misses more time this year, Wright will flourish. 
6. Keaton Mitchell (97%) – stash him on your injury slot if you have space.  Mitchell should be back in a few weeks.
7. Tyrone Tracy (90%) – lucky me, but I also invested in Tracy in my dynasty formats and I’m also not surprised by his solid performance.  Unlike Wright in Miami, I believe Singletary will resume his primary back responsibilities when he’s healthy.  But Tracy could be in line to take more snaps (like we saw Bucky Allen do in weeks 2 in 3 in Tampa).
8. Keaton Mitchell (97%) – stash him on your injury slot if you have space.  Mitchell should be back in a few weeks.
9. Audric Estime (91%) – Javonte Williams played well this week which gives him a bit of breathing room over the injured rookie.  It’ll take a month or so for Estime to make an impact at the earliest. 
10. Tyler Allgeier (58%) – Bigsby is outplaying Etienne in Jacksonville.  Allgeier is outplaying Robinson at this point.  Pay attention.    
11. Alexander Mattison (60%) – I’m underwhelmed by Mattison, but he will get volume from the Raiders so he may be flex-worthy.    
12. Ty Chandler (64%) – Unfortunately, the annual Aaron Jones injury bug struck this week.  Chandler will play well for you in the coming weeks.
13. Antonio Gibson (64%) – Gibson’s workload increased this week but Stevenson was still the better back in New England.  Gibson’s role spokes when Stevenson makes a mistake, so I consider him to remain a change of pace back and not a viable threat to Stevenson moving forward.
14. Roschon Johnson (89%) – Swift played well enough to keep Johnson off the field in week 5, but that won’t always be the case in Chicago.
15. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (93%) – he is working through anxiety so unlike a physical injury, availability does not always mean he’s going to be in the lineup.  This could take more time than you may think.

Wide Receiver:

1. Josh Downs (65% available) – I picked him up and started him in leagues where I was thin due to injury.  Downs is going to be a great player for you when Flacco is in the game, but Richardson’s QB play concerns me.    
2. Jalen Tolbert (93%) – I don’t think his score was a fluke this week.  Cooks is on IR and Tolbert will play well in a passing offense in support. 
3. Jakobi Meyers (35%) – Say hello to your new #1 Raiders receiver everyone. 
4. Wan’Dale Robinson (37%) – He had a tough matchup and Nabers wasn’t playing to draw coverage away from Robinson.  I still like him as a weekly flex option moving forward.
5. Dontayvion Wicks (60%) – He had a disappointing game in week 5, but that’s the story of Packers WRs.  They spread the ball around.
6. Tre Tucker (83%) – Once Adams gets traded, Tucker will get more targets.
7. Alec Pierce (85%) – Even when Richardson returns, Pierce should have good games.
8. Allen Lazard (62%) – I’m not impressed by him either, but Rodgers trusts him and throws him TD passes.  Lazard will fade, however, if and when the Jets acquire DaVante Adams.
9. Rome Odunze (33%) – Caleb is figuring it out.  Stat improvement for Odunze will follow. 
10. Jordan Whittington (89%) – I loved him in preseason and I think he’s fantastic now.  The Rams use him a ton in blocking schemes meaning he could flex out and play a hybrid WR/TE role.  He is a starting caliber player while Kupp is out and it wouldn’t shock me to see him continue a role even when the Rams get healthy.   
11. Tutu Atwell (75%) – I prefer Whittington long term, but Atwell continues to be a fixture in this offense.    
12. JuJu Smith-Schuster (96%) – I look forward to seeing him in action vs the Saints on MNF 
13. Jonathan Mingo (98%) – Legette just got hurt so Mingo is back in a heavy on-field rotation. 
14. Keon Coleman (43%) – He’s getting targets, but he’s not producing on the field.  The Bills are spreading the ball around more, but Coleman does look like he will be the snap leader moving forward.  That’s not bad for a rookie who has Josh Allen throwing him the ball.

Tight End:

1. Tucker Kraft (30% available) – I won’t argue with his results, but I’ll caution you.  Green Bay will spread the ball around.  The pass catchers there are often feast or famine. 
2. Taysom Hill (75% available) – We can pretend he’s a tight end, but he’s really the goal line power back for the Saints.
3. Zach Ertz (52%) – he’s narrowly missing TD opportunities every week.  It’s only a matter of time before Ertz is consistently reaching the end zone. 
4. Cole Kmet (42%) – I’m a buyer on the Bears passing attack this week.
5. Brenton Strange (91%) – has he done enough to play Evan Engram off the field long term when Engram returns?  Probably not.   
6. Theo Johnson (98%) – he very quietly put up decent target numbers.  He has been a starter since week 1 and the Giants looked his way this week with Nabers out.  Keep an eye on him.
7. Erick All Jr. (97%) – he’s someone I picked up in my very deep dynasty league two weeks ago.  His utilization in a strong passing offense has been increasing each week.
8. Cade Otton (83%) – He has talent.  Will this new Bucs staff continue feeding Otton?  I’m betting against that as I’ve seen blips him from before.  If you’re desperate, you can pick him up.  But I’d give him another week to see if he can step up and be a solid TE moving forward.

Defense:

1. LA Chargers (83% available) – They have Denver coming off a bye week.  This defense will be good in week 6.
2. Chicago (51%) – They’re a top-10 defense and playing a struggling Jacksonville team.  If they can shut Bigsby down, this might be a good week for Chicago.
3. Minnesota (32%) – There is no reason they should be so available.  They are a weekly start.  That said, they are on a bye week.  But they are so good, I suggest you pick them up when others in your league drop them this week.  Stash them this week and set them in your lineup for the rest of the season.
4. Green Bay (70%) – I don’t love the matchup vs AZ this week, but they have been playing great defense this season