If you read the Fantasy Football Almanac, you know that in my weekly reports (included for free when you purchase the book and sign up for them), I include analysis of all the preseason games after I watch them. One of my pet peeves as a connoisseur of fantasy football is when people see a depth RB in the 4th quarter pop off a big run and then the next week you hear about “sleeper potential”. Just because a player has a good preseason stat line doesn’t mean they are worth draft day consideration.
When I look for emerging players (AKA “sleepers”) during the preseason, I look for three thing:
1) Do they stand out athletically compared with the other players at their position? This is especially important for running backs. If a 2nd string running back cuts more decisively, runs with more power and is faster than the 1st stringer, they will end up having starting opportunities in the season. We saw this with Bucky Irving in 2024, for example.
2) Are they ascending the depth chart? For example, if a player looks great late in the 4th quarter when depth players are paying, does he get playing time in the 3rd quarter next week? Do we start to see him get reps with the starting group of his team? You really need to monitor if they are moving up and down the depth chart.
3) Is a big statistical performance the result of a consistently strong performance? If you look at the stat sheet and see a player had 4 carries for 40 yards and a TD, what does that really mean? For example, a player with 4 carries, 40 yards and a TD may have rushes of 1 yard, 1 yard, 1 yard and a 37 yard TD thanks to a blown assignment on defense. Or maybe that same player had 4 carries of 8, 12, 7 and 13 yards. If you’re projecting for future success, I can tell you that in my experience, you’ll have much more success with players with consistent success (the latter example). One explosive plays and a bunch of cruddy runs doesn’t matter.
Anyway, that’s why watching the games is crucial and that’s why I do it for all of my readers. I’m going to include my game notes below. I might offer analysis of one preseason game a week for everyone but beyond that, all future preseason game notes will be included in the free offseason updates. If you have not yet purchased the Almanac, what are you waiting for?
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Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions
Los Angeles Chargers
QBs:
- I have never been a fan of Trey Lance, but he looked solid last night. I know he was playing against depth players, but what I really liked was Lance’s desire to stay in the pocket and push the ball downfield. He also showed better touches on his passes than I saw in his time with San Francisco and Dallas. The Chargers backup QB situation was bad in previous seasons, but Lance gives me a bit of hope that the offense could still run with success if he’s forced into duty. I also would consider picking Lance up from waivers in that scenario, especially with his ability to snap up rushing yardage.
RBs:
- Rookie Omarion Hampton had two rushes. I liked what I saw in those attempts. He will have no problem producing at an NFL level. Another thing the stat sheet won’t tell you: Hampton was a passing option on the first Chargers TD. He ran a short out route. Lance chose to throw the ball to Will Dissly instead.
- Jaret Patterson ended up playing directly after Hampton left the game – ahead of Haskins, Hines and Vidal. All of the Chargers running backs played well, but from a fantasy point of view, we really just need to know who the 3rd RB is at this point.
- Patterson did rotate with Vidal. Those two look like they’re in a battle for the third RB role to me. And I’m not counting out Haskins, who has a long relationship with Harbaugh and had a strong rushing performance. Hines is the odd man out unless he can contribute on special teams.
WRs:
- The key Chargers receivers didn’t play. That gave KeAndre Lambert-Smith a chance to make a difference in the first half. He pulled down 2 catches for 43 yards and a TD. He looked explosive to me and that’s something the Chargers have been missing on the outside for some time. I still think Harris and Johnston are the preferred outside receivers, but their top 4 receivers should play and play well.
- Nobody else stook out to me among receivers. I’ll be interested to see if Lambert-Smith earns time with the starting group when they play in the coming weeks.
TEs:
- Will Dissly caught a couple of passes and a touchdown. I like Dissly, but Conklin is going to start here. Tru think the Chargers need to upgrade the position in coming seasons. I’m not excited about any of these TEs, but certainly not Dissly this year.
Detroit Lions
QBs:
- I was mildly surprised to see Kyle Allen starting over Hendon Hooker. I had high hopes for Hooker coming out of college, but he just hasn’t progressed. Kyle Allen has started games in the NFL. While his awful stats matched my impressions of him in live action, I don’t think Hendon Hooker’s performance gives the Lions coaching staff confidence to boost him up the depth chart. I left the game concerned that an injury to Goff would derail the entire Lions season.
RBs:
- I wasn’t enamored with the backup running backs for Detroit. Craig Reynolds looked the best, but only put up 3.8 yards per carry. I think his first drive was the best. But it is worth noting that the Lions weren’t playing their best players on the OL and the Chargers did rotate a few of their starters in the game.
- Jabari Small had some playing time, but again, I don’t think he’s worth paying attention to at this point. Reynolds looks far ahead of others in the depth chart battle. And of course, the Lions have Gibbs and Montgomery to lean on when the games matter.
WRs:
- Isaac TeSlaa looked impressive to me. This is another reason why watching the preseason games and constantly tweaking the book is so important. I viewed TeSlaa as a development player who could add quality depth as the Lions 4th WR. That has changed. The Lions lined him up all over the field. It’s a good sign when receivers aren’t locked into a single position on the field. I think there’s a good chance TeSlaa will be a starting outside receiver this year. He could make some noise in PPR formats later in the year. I’ll be boosting him in my next rankings.
- The rest of the Lions were a bunch of “meh” this week. Dominic Lovett had a lot of targets, but he didn’t leave me with the impression he was going to earn more opportunities.
TEs:
- Even if one had a great game this week, I wouldn’t have cared much. Sam LaPorta has the starting role locked down. No other TE will have a strong opportunity this year. Even if LaPorta misses time, a backup is unlikely to make their mark on this offense – especially with the Lions playing more 2-RB formations this year.
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