2024 Almanac, Coaching Changes and Free Agency Thoughts

Hello and I hope you’re having a great weekend! It’s been a while since I’ve checked in and I thought I’d mention a few things.

2024 Fantasy Football Almanac

First, the 2024 Fantasy Football Almanac is well into production. I’ve been spending the last month or so refining offenses and workshare numbers. My demanding day job has taken much of my time, but I am coming along nicely with the stat projections. My plan is to publish the book on Amazon sometime around Sunday, June 2nd, 2024.

Because Amazon has made several changes in how much they are paying their authors, and because I can’t rely on Amazon to have my book in stock, I’m also going to be publishing electronic versions (PDF copies) available for purchase directly on my website this year. The electronic versions will be less expensive than the print versions so this will offer a nice combination between saving you money and also making me a bit more money. Also, I’m going to be releasing the regular 2024 Almanac and also a more expensive, but more robust “Gold Edition” which will include workshare tables for each offensive coordinator. I released these as separate books last year, but I’m just going to pull everything underneath the umbrella. I have good intentions to upload the workshare percentages as the 2024 season moves on, but we’ll see how that goes.

The standard version will be just like the Almanac you’ve read over the years and will come with updates which will be provided on the website.

2024 Coaching Changes

I was underwhelmed by the hiring cycle this year. I wasn’t shocked Ben Johnson didn’t take a job and because the offensive assistants had been plucked over the last few years, there were more defensive coaches in this year’s hiring cycle than usual. But that’s to be expected. As always, I focus more on the offensive play caller when there are regime changes and I think there are 16 new coordinators this year. It’s been a wild offseason.

In broad strokes, my favorite hire is Jim Harbaugh and we really want to take a hard look at that running game. Gus Edwards is the primary ball handler and he has familiar with incoming offensive coordinator Greg Roman. We have to keep an eye on what happens in the draft, of course, but you can expect me to be higher on Edwards than other publications.

I also like the match between Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury. The melding of Raheem Morris and new OC, Zac Robinson along with the signing of Kirk Cousins gives that entire skill group a boost.

Brian Callahan and Dave Canales earned jobs this year, but I’m leery of Wil Levis and Bryce Young at quarterback for these guys respectively. Their teams are thankfully trying to support their young quarterbacks by adding talent at the skill positions, but I’m still proceeding with caution.

If you have interest in hearing more about my thoughts on the coaching hires, I released a podcast ranking my hires from 8 to 1: https://underdogpodcasts.com/category/sports/fantasy-sports/get-paid-fantasy-gambling-and-dfs.

2024 NFL Free Agency

This free agency period has started fast and furious. Teams seem to be flipping legit skill player assets as fast as they can. I do love the Chargers, but I think their real jump forward will be in 2025. Getting rid of their receivers hurts, but this will help Palmer and I bet Quentin Johnston will get a boost from the coaching staff there. More than anything, I think he just needs some confidence. I mean, Jerry Rice dropped a lot of passes his rookie season too and it worked out ok for him. A new coaching regime will go a long way.

I LOVE Derrick Henry to the Ravens. That is a match made in heaven if he can stay healthy.

Austin Ekeler to Commanders was a great value deal for Washington. Ekeler is on the wrong side of 30, but he was seldom used early in his career so he should have a couple of years of production. Kingsbury should have him producing similarly to how Conners produced for him in Arizona. However, Washington does have some talent at the position so there will probably be a healthy workshare split.

Cousins to the Falcons is a home run. I never bought the Fields-to-Atlanta chatter once they canned Arthur Smith. Zac Robinson is a McVay disciple and Cousins knows that system well from their days together in Washington. Atlanta’s a playoff team if Cousins can play a full season. Lock them in.

Swift to the Bears and Saquon to the Giants were interesting article fodder, but I don’t think those moves will impact their fantasy value much. Where Saquon is concerned, it might hurt his value because I still expect the Eagles to run Jalen Hurts tush push plays regardless of Kelce’s retirement at center.

I don’t have anything jumping out at me from a WR or TE point of view. Maybe Ertz will have some juice in Washington, but he’s getting older and is often injured at this point. Mooney to Atlanta is OK, but London and Bijan Robinson will be the biggest beneficiaries of scheme and workshare changes. Kyle Pitts should also see a boost in this system, but Robinson will still want him to block within this scheme, so proceed with caution.

Keenan Allen to the Bears will help whoever is starting at QB for Chicago (probably Caleb Williams, but time will tell). The addition of Allen should probably negatively impact DJ Moore’s on-field input.

Russell Wilson to the Steelers is a great fit and we should see consistent touchdown production in Pittsburgh this year (for a change, right?). Diontae has been traded, so look for Calvin Austin III to take a leap this year.

I discussed my favorite 6 free agent signings from a fantasy football point of view on the Pick 6 podcast, available on all platforms or directly on the Underdog website: https://underdogpodcasts.com/category/sports/fantasy-sports/pick-6

Thanks all – I’ll get back to work on the book!